When Bonds Stop Being Ballast
Category: Macro & Portfolio Strategy
Published:
U.S. stock–bond correlations shifted back toward negative territory in May 2026 amid renewed inflation pressures and a paused Fed easing cycle — a risk-state signal warranting measured portfolio adjustment, not a wholesale risk-off pivot.
Read the full Icarus Asia research note at https://icarusasia.com/research/stock-bond-correlation.
Related research
- The Narrow Case for US–China Gold Diplomacy — Why a US statutory gold revaluation is a balance-sheet exercise, not a monetary regime change, and what fifty years of monetary history actually teach about the limits of coordinated adjustment.
- Resolving Japan's Impossible Trinity — USD/JPY near 162.5 in July 2026 — the weakest yen in four decades — despite three BoJ rate hikes and record ¥11.73 trillion ($73.6 billion) of MoF intervention in a single month. Inside the four-decade record of yen defense, the war-chest math, and a four-part strategy for avoiding a disorderly break.
- Half as Safe as It Looks: Chinese Banks' External Debt — PBOC monetary survey data puts Chinese banks' net foreign assets near $1.5 trillion. BoP-consistent SAFE data says $624 billion. The whole gap sits on the liability side, where $1.49 trillion of gross external obligations still needs watching.
By Icarus Asia — independent strategic advisory and market research on Asian markets.